Security Incidents in Sudan: Trends and Patterns
1 Executive Summary
Sudan has become one of the world’s most dangerous contexts for humanitarian operations, with violence escalating sharply since the outbreak of civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in 2023. Over 150,000 people have died, and more than 14 million have been displaced, creating unprecedented operational challenges for humanitarian actors.
Key findings from this analysis include:
- Incident surges align with major conflict milestones, including the Darfur crisis, Bashir’s overthrow, the 2021 coup, and the 2023 civil war.
- Shooting, kidnapping, and bodily assault are the most common attack methods, reflecting both armed combat and targeted threats to aid workers.
- Ambushes dominate the attack context, especially on roads—making transportation routes a critical risk factor.
- Sudanese nationals face nearly all casualties, highlighting inequities in exposure and duty of care.
- Deadly incidents span 20+ years and occur across both urban and rural zones, showing the long-term and geographically dispersed nature of risk.
This report emphasizes the need for conflict-specific planning, real-time risk assessments, protection of national staff, and sustained policy engagement to ensure safer humanitarian access amid Sudan’s evolving crisis.
2 Background: The Conflict
2.1 Historical Context
Sudan faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis as civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) enters its third year. Since April 2023, approximately 150,000 people have died and 14 million been displaced. Three million refugees have fled to neighboring countries, while 30 million need humanitarian assistance. The UN warns Sudan faces the “world’s largest hunger crisis.”
The conflict stems from a power struggle between SAF leader Burhan and RSF commander Hemedti after they jointly overthrew dictator Bashir in 2019. Foreign involvement has complicated peace efforts. Recently, SAF has gained territory around Khartoum, while RSF continues committing atrocities in Darfur, raising concerns of renewed genocide (Foreign Relations 2024).
2.2 Recent Escalation
Initial outbreak (2023):
- Fighting began April 2023 in Khartoum between SAF and RSF
- Violence spread quickly to Darfur, where RSF targeted non-Arab groups
- RSF killed over 800 civilians in Ardamata during November attacks
SAF counteroffensive (2024-2025):
- SAF recaptured much of Khartoum area by early 2025
- SAF successfully ended the blockade around the city of Obeid that had been maintained by the RSF for two years.
- Key gains include Omdurman city and a strategic oil refinery